Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Scope of Data Analytics In the World

As quoted by Mr. Paul Abraham, Executive Vice President, TNS Consumer Intelligence Consulting.

Analytics will always find application in an increasingly "Knowledge-Driven" world. As Information and Communication Technologies capture and bring exponentially growing amounts of data to our desktops, the need for skills to mine this data and move it up the Data-Information-Knowledge-Insight value chain can only grow stronger. The reasons why prospects for analytics will remain bright in the near to medium term is two-fold Given the abundance of trained statistical manpower in India and the relatively low wages, India will remain an attractive destination for the KPO business. Additionally India too will witness the growth in demand for analytics services as user companies (clients) invest in data warehouses to capture and store data, and as markets grow more competitive. They will come under increasing pressure to adopt modern data-supported management practices.

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Some Analytics Stuff @meltdata

This Section of our blog discusses the important Techniques which are being used in market research industry . These techniques help one in developing a mathematical model to predict various characterstics, behaviours this section will also be useful if we require how to make the right use of statistics, statistics test for market research purposes. We will try to keep it as simple as possible in our approach. We hope that it will be of great use for the researchers and student community.


Of course we will also take the help of spss We will not go into complex arithmetic and derivations behind many of the tests and techniques as it may not be useful.

We assume that the reader to be familiar with basic statistics like mean, mode ,median .Rest other things will be discussed here as and when necessary

One more thing we will use uniformly is 95% confidence interval.

Hypothesis Testing
1.
Generally it may be very confusing to learn various tests and techniques. The golden rule is that whenever you apply any tests you see two things . One is the null hypothesis and the p (sig value) . If the p value is less than 0.05 , your null hypothesis is rejected. So if somebody makes a null hypothesis “ Correlation coefficient is = 0 or there is no correlation between the two variables “ . If the p value is less than 0.05 ,then the null hypothesis is rejected . This implies that there is a correlation between the two variables and your significance however low or high it may be significant”.

Similarly if you have check for regression coefficients . Say our statistical test says the null hypothesis as “All Regression coeff. are zero” and we get a p value > 0,05. That means that “Null hypothesis is true” . This implies that the regression coefficients are not significant. This test of checking all the regression coefficient is called the F test. If we want to check for individual regression coefficnt we need to check their individual p values (which comes from t test of the null hypothesis “Coefficient is zero”. ). In this case also the golden rule holds true.

Let us now use some of the statistical tests. We will systematically study where it is applied . How to do these tests with the spss? How it can be useful in a market research study.

First we will study the tests on Quantitative Data

2 cases exist

1. Normality assumption and homogeneity Assumption are satisfied in the data. Don’t worry we will have a test to check that also!. Normality means it is a bell shape curve while the homogeneity means that the data has a constant variance. Generally these assumption are satisfied in large data by itself.

In these cases we conduct parametric tests.

2. If the above assumptions are not satisfied we would conduct an equivalent Non Parametic test.

Parametric                         Non-Parametric

1 Sample T-test                1.Sign Test/Wilcoxon Signed Rank test

Paired T-test Sign Test        Wilcoxon Signed Rank test

2 Sample T-test                2.Mann Whitney U test/Wilcoxon Sum Rank

  ANOVA                            Kruskal Wallis test
So First of all we do Normality test

1. Plot the graph. See the Histogram . It should look like a Bell curve (Best way)

2. Kolmogorov-Smirnov AND Shapiro-Wilk test will tell you if data is normal. (Nulll hypothesis : Data is Not Normal so p>0.05 means data is normal.). You can do these tests with the spss.

Watch out for more very soon!

Web link : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions provider

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Union Budget 2010-11: How it's likely to cause price rise, petro and gold prices would impact inflation

The Union finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee’s budgetary proposals for the year 2010-11 may help the economy to achieve the magic growth figure which is targeted at 8.5%, but little it can do to vanish the price inflation worries. In fact certain proposals in the Budget would lead to further rise in prices of essential commodities.

The proposal to restore the basic customs duty of 5% on crude petroleum, 7.5% on diesel and petrol and 10% on other refined products was justified by finance minister by saying that the increse in custom duty is the roll back to the level which was reduced in June 2008 as the prices of crude was pretty high about $120 / barrel at that time but tnow the prices are softened. And moreover it was the time to move on the path of fiscal consolidation.

The global prices of crude oil had softened in the wake of the global financial crisis, but now it has shown a rising trend. Currently the global prices are hovering around US$ 80 per bbl. As India depends upon crude oil imports to the extent of 70%, these measures of the government would definitely translate into further price inflationary pressure on the economy. Following the announcement of the budgetary proposals, the Indian oil companies have decided to upscale the prices. Diesel prices in Delhi is likely to increase by Rs 2.55 and that of petrol by Rs 2.71 a litre. Thus not only public transport would become costlier, but also the transportation of essentialcommodities. Already the country is reeling under the impact of soaring prices.

Another folly in the budgetary proposal is to increase the customs duty on gold and platinum from Rs 200 per 10 grams to Rs 300 per 10 grams and on silver from Rs 1,000 per kg to Rs 1,500 per kg. This caused the rise gold prices and the spillover effect was on the prices of other commodities as well. Gold has now become an important area for investment and in India, particularly the attachment to this precious metal is due to the cultural ethos.

Instead of raising the custom duties the FM should rollover some of the incentives which was given to the manufacturing sector at  the time of financial crisis and as in current scenario they have registered a growth of around 8.9%, some of these incentives could have been withdrawn in a calibrated manner.

But I must admit that this a strong step taken by the finance minister without worrying about the reaction of opposition parties. Definitely in long term it will be beneficial for shooting up the growth rate of GDP of country. But short term effect will be double digit inflation in few months.

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Saturday, March 13, 2010

IS excess saving is a virtue or a vice ?

Hi Readers

Here I am trying to explorethe implications of excess saving. Generally our perceptions are like individual saving will result in better standard of living in future, means thriftness will help in improve saving thus better life in future. Tha anmoly arises because of paradox of saving/ thriftness as I will explain in detail in subsequent lines.

As we know by IS / goods equilbrium

Total output  ( Y ) = Expected Demand ( Z )..................Goods market equilbrium

Thus  Y = C + I + G (In case of close economy)

Y = [ Co + c (Y - T)  ] + G + I

Total saving = Private saving + Public saving

Private saving   S = ( Y - C - T)  = G + I + T.............and we know all the 3 factors are independent of thriftness. So overall private saving does not change.

But Y = [ Co + c (Y - T) ] + G + I  decreased.


Classical Model

In classical model we assume Y is constant as in long run, economy is producing at full employment level .

So Total Saving  S = Y - C - G and here due to thriftness C decreased but Y is constant, thus overall saving decreaeses. This is paradox of Saving.

So thriftness can lead to decrease or unchanged Saving.

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Why some countires are so rich while others are mired in poverty??

 Before starting to explain the phenomenon as to why their a a difference in status of countries. Firstly we need to understand in what terms we are saying that a country is rich and other is poor. Is it standard of living, employment, aggregate income of a country or inflation and several other economic indicators.

To clear the point it is standard of living of people of country which is stated in terms of real GDP per capita i.e. on an average income of a person in a country.

Before going into details, we need to understand a comprehensive model named as Solow Growth Model named after the famous economist Robert Solow. We need to clearly understand the assumptions prior to diving into the mode.

Assumptions
  • Production function exhibits Diminishing Marginal return to Capital
  • We assume 2 inputs in the production function - Capital and Labor
  • Two other important inputs are Natural Resources and Human capitsl (but at this point of time we will not consider these two inputs)
  • We will assume that growth in "Technology"  is  not there.
Production function :  Y =  A F(K,L)

Assuming y = Y/L and k = K/L, we can rewrite the equation as y = f (k) as we are interested in analyzing output per labor.

Also as we know that  Saving = Investment = s f (k) where s = saving rate

The change in capital stock per worker :

dk = Investment (sf(k)) - depreciation in capital (d*k) - rate of increase in population growth (n) * k

    Increase in population requires additional capital
    We need to maintain the condition on existing machines/ capital stock
    Investment on capital will help in increasing capital stock 

At steady state dk = 0
hence,   sf (k) =  ( n + d ) k



Key findings :

1. At steady state output / worker and capital / worker is constant i.e. growth is zero. 

2. You can see clearly from the graph that if saving rate is high :  Steady state capital / worker and output / worker will be high.

3. While if rate of depreciation of capital or population growth (n) is high standard of living will be low. 

4. Steady state growth in total output of a country is n i.e. population growth

So countries with high population growth and low saving rate are poorer

      ######  Keep in mind that we excluded  the effect of technological growth in this model. ######

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Mathematical Model for Deriving Equilbrium Income and Interest Rate

In this article we are going to explain the mathematics behind deriving Aggregate Demand from IS - LM Model (where goods and capital market are both in equilbrium simultaneously).

The intersection of IS and LM schedules determines the equilbrium income and the equilbrium interest rate. We will use the equationg derived for IS and LM schedules

IS schedule : Y = α  ( Â – b i )

LM schedule :  i = (1/h ) ( kY - M / P )

Solving the two schedules we will derive the equilbrium income

Equilbrium Income       Y = γ Â + γ ( b / h) ( M / P)

We can calculate equilbrium interest rate by substituting  eqilbrium income in Lm schedule.

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Friday, March 5, 2010

Equilbrium in the Goods Market and Money Market

IS - LM macroeconomic model helps us to develop a sound understanding of how equilbrium is approached in our economy. Here we will understand how equilbrium is acheived in a closed economy.

A macroeconomic model that graphically represents two intersecting curves, called the IS and LM curves. The investment/saving (IS) curve is a variation of the income-expenditure model incorporating market interest rates (demand for this model), while the liquidity preference/money supply equilibrium (LM) curve represents the amount of money available for investing (supply for this model).


The interest rate and the level of output are determined by the interaction of money (LM) and goods (IS) markets. But we should remember that we have adopted few assumptions while developing IS - LM model.

Key Assumptions:


  • Price level is assumed to be constant

  • Firms are willing to supply whatever amount of output is demanded at that price level.

  • We assumed short rum aggregate supply curve to be flat




We will explain the mathematics behind the model in the subsequent blog.


Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Scope of Market Research and Analytics in India



As quoted by Mr. Paul Abraham, Executive Vice President, TNS Consumer Intelligence Consulting

Analytics will always find application in an increasingly "Knowledge-Driven" world. As Information and Communication Technologies capture and bring exponentially growing amounts of data to our desktops, the need for skills to mine this data and move it up the Data-Information-Knowledge-Insight value chain can only grow stronger. The reasons why prospects for analytics will remain bright in the near to medium term is two-fold Given the abundance of trained statistical manpower in India and the relatively low wages, India will remain an attractive destination for the KPO business. Additionally India too will witness the growth in demand for analytics services as user companies (clients) invest in data warehouses to capture and store data, and as markets grow more competitive. They will come under increasing pressure to adopt modern data-supported management practices. 

Fact: 
 According to estimates of companies like Evalueserve, Nasscom -  Analytics and Market Research are going to be the new outsourcing  pillars of India increasing at a compound annual growth of above 30%. 




Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Saturday, February 20, 2010

How much Capital per Worker is the Best for the Economy? The Golden Rule of Capital

What can we say about economic policy and long-run growth? To keep matters simple, let us assume that the government can—by proper fiscal and monetary policies—set and keep the economy’s
savings-investment rate s at whatever level it wishes. What level should the government choose for the economy’s savings rate?

It seems reasonable to assume that the government’s objective is to maximize the well-being of the individuals who make up the society by maximizing the amount of goods and services that they can
consume. Let us, for the moment, simplify things further and say that consumption C is equal to total production Y minus investment I:

C = Y-I
I =sY

Higher savings rate so not mean Higher Prosperity always/ The best savings rate is that which maximises the consumption for the economy. Let us assume that the change in capital /worker is given by Delta(k)

Then Delta(k) =  Investment - Depreciation (of the capital)

Delta(k) = (Savings Rate)(Production/worker)- (Depreciation Rate)(capital/worker)

At steady state left hand side term is zero
Consumption/worker = (Production/worker) – Depreciation.
So to maximize consumption we have
Marginal Production = Depreciation Rate


Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Why Inflation is of major concern for Indian Economy?

Inflation is a measure of increase in overall prices of goods and commodities. Inflation in india is being measured using Wholesale Price Index (WPI). In India, inflation is calculated on a weekly basis.but lag of 2 weeks in calculation is there. Indian statistician uses 1970 as the base year in the calculation of WPI.

The wholesale food prices in India touched a 10 year high with food inflation coming at 19.95% for the week ended December 5, 2009. This article looks back into the spiraling food inflation in 2009, its implications, reasons and solutions. Significant price increase has been observed in commodities like arhar dal, sugar, potatoes and onions.The key reason cited for the spiraling food price inflation is the bad monsoon in India. There are few other reasons which resulted in boosting of prices such as :

In 2008, it was estimated that India loses INR 58,000 crore worth of agricultural food items due to lack of post harvesting infrastructure such as storage, transportation. Moreover due to hoarding and several other reasons.

Due to spiralling rise in the inflation the real value of money depreciates futrther leading to a reduction in purchasing power. Thus inflation adversely effects the consumers. Due to high prices of essential food products and commodities consumer has to cut down its expenses on non essential items. As GDP consists of consumption as an element in its caculation it depreciates indian GDP.

There are several costs attached to the increasing expected inflation such as:

One cost is the distortion of the inflation tax on the amount of money people hold. Higher inflation rate leads to a higher nominal interest rate, which in turn leads to lower real money balances. If people are to hold lower money balances on average, they must make more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money—for example, they might withdraw $50 twice a week rather than $100 once a week.The inconvenience of reducing money holding is metaphorically called the shoe leather cost of inflation, because walking to the bank more often causes one’s shoes to wear out more quickly.
 
A second cost of inflation arises because high inflation induces firms to change their posted prices more often. This costs are known as Menu costs.
 
A third cost of inflation results from the tax laws. Many provisions of the tax code do not take into account the effects of inflation. Inflation can alter individuals’ tax liability, often in ways that lawmakers did not intend.
 
A fourth cost of inflation is the inconvenience of living in a world with a changing price level. Money is the yardstick with which we measure economic transactions. When there is inflation, that yardstick is changing in length.
 
Inflation is far more pernicious when it is unexpected because it arbitrarily redistributes wealth among individuals and also it effects people's pensions and several other things. So goverment should take serious look on the issues of inflation to have a sustained growth in India.

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Supporting Analytics with Statistics - Introduction

Meltdata Used Various kinds of Statistical Techniques for analysis of data.

The Most Important of these  are techniques are :
Factor Analysis
Cluster Analysis
Linear and Multiple Regression
Logistic Regression
Multiple Logistic Regression
Logit , Probit
CHAID
CART
Conjoint
Canonical Correlation
Bayesian Modelling
Survial Analysis
Cox Regression

Tests
T test (Paired and Independent/Dependent Samples)
Z test
Kruskal Wallis
Mann Whitney U Test
ANOVA
MANOVA

Commonly Used Forecasting Techniques
Weighted Average
Moving Average
Regressive Techniques
Trend and Ratio Methods
Advacnced Techniques like Fourier and Wavelet Techniques

We will explain the Application of these techniques in the subsequent blogs.

For more techniques visit:

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

India: A Bright Spot Amidst The Global Recession?

Nouriel Roubini, of the infamous (and silly) Dr Doom moniker, says India might just do OK.

Despite slowing from highs of 8% to 9% growth, India’s economy will grow close to 6% in 2009. Amid domestic and global liquidity crunch, large domestic savings and corporate retained earnings are financing investment. Sluggish labor market and wealth effects have hit urban consumption. But low export dependence, a large consumption base and the high share of employment (two-thirds) and income (one-half) coming from rural areas has helped sustain consumption. Pre-election spending, especially in rural areas, and high government expenditure, are also pluses. Timely monetary and credit measures have played a key role in improving private demand, liquidity and short-term rates and reducing the risk of loan losses. Credit is largely channeled by domestic banks, especially state-controlled ones, which have low loan-to-deposit ratios and little exposure to toxic assets….link

Given Roubini’s track record over the last three years, he’s certainly built some cred. Do you agree with his assessment on India, though?

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore